Power / PJM / 2026 forecast

PJM's demand outlook can move faster than generation can reach the grid.

PJM expects 95% of net peak-load growth through 2035 to come from an above-embedded adjustment layer. Successful PJM generator projects completed in 2020–25 spent a median 5.2 years in the queue.

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PJM summer peak-load forecast and the historical queue-to-operation time for successful PJM generation projects, shown as two separate clocks. — Forecast demand and historical connection time are compared, not subtracted. This is not a claimed 63.8 GW supply deficit.PJM 2026 Load Report · Berkeley Lab Queued Up 2026

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Jul 11, 2026 · Capital / Power

The ramp vs. reality: scoring the decade's most aggressive AI forecast

In June 2024, Situational Awareness put numbers and dates on the AI buildout — trillion-dollar clusters, gigawatt datacenters, power as the binding constraint. Two years in, our own measured data says the 'aggressive' curve is the one reality is tracking.

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Jul 11, 2026 · Capital

We tested the most-watched leading indicator in AI — it has no lead

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The chip boom is the only industrial growth in either superpower

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61% of South Korea's memory now ships to Greater China

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The evidence product

The reporting sits on data we grabbed ourselves.

Primary records are normalized, joined into original cuts, and kept reachable beside the conclusion. Measured fact, forecast, and model stay visibly separate.